As the Spring Market picks up speed, Manhattan real estate is showing solid performance—but broader financial markets are introducing new variables that could shape what comes next. Mortgage rates have ticked back up. Treasury yields are swinging. And liquidity is tightening across the board.
These shifts don’t appear to have impacted buyer behavior in a meaningful way yet. Historically, it can take a few weeks for this type of economic volatility to trickle into the real estate markets, so we will have to wait and see how things progress. For now, Spring numbers are holding strong—and Q1 performance gave us a solid foundation heading into the second quarter.
Q1 Recap: A Strong Foundation for Spring
The first quarter of 2025 gave Manhattan a confident start to the year. Median sale price rose to $1.18M, up nearly 7% from Q4 and almost 12% higher than the same time last year. The average sale price climbed to $2.19M, representing an annual increase of more than 15%.
Days on market saw a seasonal rise to 100, but the year-over-year comparison points to a more competitive landscape than early 2024. Listings continue to sell at roughly 95% of their asking price, a clear signal that buyers remain engaged and that sellers -when priced correctly- retain meaningful leverage.
We also saw movement across all segments of the market. Co-ops, resale condos, new developments, and luxury properties all posted gains, with particular strength at the higher end. As we look ahead, the question is whether this momentum can continue as inventory builds and macro uncertainty lingers.
Click here to view the full Q1 2025 Manhattan Market Report
Inventory Is Rising, But on Track Seasonally
Active supply in Manhattan has now reached 6,812 listings—up 2.5% from last week. This pace mirrors what we saw at this time in 2022 and 2023, suggesting we’re in familiar territory.
If current trends hold, we’re likely to peak somewhere around 7,400 to 7,500 listings by early June. For now, the increase in inventory is manageable, and it hasn’t outpaced demand.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Contract Activity Slips, But Demand Remains Elevated
Contract activity over the last 30 days remains seasonally strong, with 1,145 deals signed – outperforming most recent spring markets outside the pandemic-driven highs of 2021–22.
That said, the most recent weekly snapshot shows some softening, with 233 contracts signed reflecting a 17% drop from the prior week. While it’s too early to call this a trend, it could reflect either early signs of buyer hesitation or simply a typical April slowdown. Historically, April tends to dip slightly from March before activity picks back up in May.
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
Courtesy of UrbanDigs
For Sellers
If you’re on the market—or preparing to list—this is a moment that calls for strategic execution. Demand is still present, but buyers are becoming more value focused as broader uncertainty builds.
- Price with intent. Avoid “testing the market”—overpricing can quickly stall momentum.
- Don’t wait to adjust. If your listing is overdue for a pricing shift, it’s better to act while buyers are still engaged.
- Take offers seriously. With liquidity still strong, a solid offer today may be better than uncertainty tomorrow.
For Buyers
We’re still in a seller-leaning market, but that could start to shift—especially if volatility persists. The best value may come from early movers—those sellers adjusting before others feel the pressure.
- Watch lingering listings. Properties with multiple reductions are worth a second look.
- Stay prepped to move fast. Good listings are still getting scooped up quickly.
- Keep an eye on market tone. If conditions soften, buyers who are prepared will have the upper hand.
Manhattan’s market remains on solid footing, with pricing power intact and activity levels holding steady. But there’s no doubt we’re entering a more sensitive phase of the season—one where macro conditions could start to influence behavior more directly.
With more than two months left in the spring cycle, the next several weeks will be important. Will the market power through the noise, or are we nearing a turning point? We will be watching the data closely and keeping you informed. If real estate is on your mind, feel free to contact us anytime!