The summer market is nearing its end and all eyes are turning to the fall markets.
There are a lot of opinions out there around what the 2nd half of the year will deliver us, but it’s safe to say that the recent numbers posted on rates and inflation leaned into the positive. We’ll take it!
To start with, many of the worrying trends we were experiencing as we transitioned into early summer have stabilized or improved.
Interest rates have regained stability for now, staying flat around 5% since last week. The S&P 500 just posted its 4th positive week in a row and longest winning streak since Nov 2021.
Inflation has started to cool, with the Consumer Price Index just posting at 8.5%, compared to 9.1% in June.
Where are we now?
If you are a buyer, you’re most likely finding good places harder and harder to find. Per the chart below, supply dropped 9% from last month and continues trending down for now but still remains above 2019 levels.
DATA COURTESY OF URBANDIGS.COM
New Supply came up slightly but as seasonal trends continue to reassert themselves, we expect that the listings coming on the market will increase dramatically after Labor Day.
For context, in 2019 and 2021 new supply coming on the market more than doubled between August and September!
DATA COURTESY OF URBANDIGS.COM
Contracts signed is up 4.95% from last month and over 200, as activity in the market continues despite limited options. As consumers gain more confidence and rental prices stay sky high, the demand for apartments to purchase is persisting.
DATA COURTESY OF URBANDIGS.COM
This leads us to something called Market Pulse. Market pulse is the ratio between pending sales (a measure of demand) and supply. It can give us an overall idea of where leverage is trending, either towards the buyers or sellers. We have been trending away from a seller’s market since the beginning of 2022 but stabilizing around 0.5 for the majority of the summer. We will be watching this come September and predict buyers may lose some of that leverage as competition increases.
DATA COURTESY OF URBANDIGS.COM
Our team is always here to answer your questions and help guide you! Feel free to reach out anytime!
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